Trump Tweet To Tweak Oil Trend

Trump Tweet To Tweak Oil Trend

7 hours ago, Bhimsen Pachawry said:

Ghawar doesn’t produce 2GBL per day anymore. It used to do so in 2010 but has declined greatly. They were doing EOR in 2014-15 for Ghawar due to heavy decline. Nevertheless, Ghawar is only 30% of KSA oil resources and 40% of reserves. OOIP of Ghawar is 170GBL while reserves are at 55% -60% which is around 100GBL. Total OOIP & reserves of KSA was 530GBL and 275GBL. Ghawar has higher reserve to resource ratio due to large formation but it is not the only oil for KSA.

So,even without Ghawar, the KSA has still 360GBL resource and 175 GBL oil reserves. As of now, Ghawar has been seriously declining and 90% is exhausted. Other smaller oil fields are being tapped.

Just like USA is able to produce 10MBPD with 35GBL oil, KSA can produce even upto 25MBPD from 110-115GBL oil (10GBL is Ghawar and rest from other fields). KSA wastes so much money on various activities like building ghost cities, making man made islands etc that investment for spare capacity should not be considered as wasteful It is always wiseto keep spare capacity to be the swing producer

although you are highlighting my point, I’d like to ask you for source of your info. Ghawar was (and likely still is) the largest field in the world; it produced ~5MMBOPD and was pushing insanely high recovery factors. One of a theories I’ve heard from Aramco geologist – porosity of Arab D is underestimated (can’t core good rock).

I’m out of the Kingdom (wouldn’t share confidential info anyway) and wasn’t following operating area production; google not cooperating but this link suggest field is still close to 5MM http://energy-cg.com/OPEC/SaudiArabia/OPEC_SaudiArabia_Ghawar.html 

I find Aramcons very professional bunch and Saudis as well-educated pragmatic people. Yes, there was waste (cheap gas, water, and electricity for one) and corruption but over-investment into spare capacity wouldn’t be done unless they really hoped to “swing it” at a time of high oil price. Yes, I know Amin Nasser reassured Aramco have 2MM to spare but there are some doubts about that claim.

My bet – US will walk back anti-Iran rhetoric to avoid oil shock. And we still see it – one cannot neglect maintenance and investment into infrastructure w/o paying the price for it.

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Trump Tweet To Tweak Oil Trend

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