What Women Want

After massive Women’s Marches, a powerful movement to expose sexual harassment and an explosion of women considering a run for elected office, America is almost certain to elect a man to the presidency in November.

However, women will have an enormous – perhaps pivotal – role in deciding which man it will be.

Female voters this year are more involved in the political process and are throwing lopsided support to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden – in many battleground states, by heavier margins than they backed Hillary Clinton, the first female major party nominee for president, in 2016, according to polling data.

Women have tended to vote Democratic since 1980, when a gender gap began to emerge, says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. That doesn’t always translate to a Democratic win, since men tend to vote GOP and the battleground states that decide the Electoral College vote have closer vote margins.

But the backlash against President Donald Trump from many female voters combined with the impact of the coronavirus have given the president a real problem with women as he heads into the most intense period of the campaign, experts say.

“We think it’s a reflection of a trend that started quite some time ago, with the gender gap, that really accelerated after Trump got elected, interestingly,” says Morley Winograd, a senior fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School Center on Communication Leadership and Policy. “It has continued to grow at an accelerated rate ever since,” adds Winograd, noting the outsize impact of female voters on Democratic wins in 2017, 2018 and last year.

[ Democracy Demographics: The Data Behind the Votes ]

Winograd compares the evolution of the female vote to the political shift in the South from Democrat to Republican, following former president Richard Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” that transformed the political map for decades.

“This is the beginning of a very similar shift that will push women to the forefront” in deciding elections at all levels of government, he adds.

Nationally, solid support from female voters in 2016 gave Clinton a popular vote advantage of about 3 percentage points. But the breakdown in battleground states translated to a loss in the Electoral College.

Clinton won a majority of female voters in all battleground states – and even some, such as Georgia, Iowa and Texas, which were not considered in play for Democrats in 2016 but might be this year. Trump, meanwhile, won the male vote in every one of those states.

“For a lot of women, it’s survival in a very clear way. They’re losing their jobs, they don’t have health care, and they’re worried about their kids.”

But state-by-state polling this year indicates that Trump’s support among women in those states is eroding, perhaps by enough to flip the states for Biden in the fall.

In Wisconsin, one of three critical states Trump wrested from the Democratic column in 2016, women favored Clinton by a 10-point margin, 53% to 43% for Trump, according to exit polls. Men voted for Trump by a larger margin – 54% to the 40% who cast ballots for Clinton – and Trump won the state narrowly.

But a recent poll by Marquette University Law School shows that Biden has a 20-point advantage among female voters, with 55% support for the former vice president, compared to 33% of women who say they will vote for Trump. The president’s support among men has not changed much: 55% say they will vote for Trump, while 37% back Biden. With the shift among female voters, Biden has a 3-percentage-point edge over Trump in the critical Badger State.

In Pennsylvania, a state Clinton lost narrowly in the last presidential election, heavy support among female voters (55% of whom voted for her, compared to 42% of women who cast ballots for Trump) could not overcome heavier backing for Trump by men, 57% of whom favored Trump compared to 40% who voted for Clinton.

But in a recent survey by Public Policy Polling, Biden has wider support among women in the state, with 57% backing him and 38% supporting Trump. Men are more likely to support Trump (51%) than Biden (44%), according to the poll, which gives the former vice president a 51% to 44% advantage in his birth state.

Biden also polls slightly higher than Clinton performed in Michigan. In 2016, 53% of women voted for Clinton and 42% voted for Trump. Polling by PPP has Biden with 55% of the female vote, with 40% of women backing Trump.

Other states in play this year show similar trouble for the president among female voters. In Arizona, an OH Predictive Insights poll shows Biden ahead of Trump among women, 55% to 48%. In Florida, Biden commands 51% of the female vote, compared to 38% for Trump, in a Quinnipiac University survey. In Iowa, 52% of women voters back Biden, compared to 42% who say they will vote for the president, a PPP survey says. In every one of those states – all of which Trump won in 2016 – support for Biden among women is higher in polls than the percentages of women who voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago.

In states Clinton won narrowly, too, women voters are giving Biden some more breathing room. Clinton barely eked out a victory in New Hampshire in 2016, and she carried the female vote there with 54% of the vote, compared to 41% of women who voted for Trump, according to exit polls. A recent St. Anselm College survey shows Biden with a bigger advantage, capturing 59% of female support, compared to 33% who say they will vote for Trump.

In Virginia, a state Clinton won with less than 50% of the vote, Biden has a slightly bigger lead among female voters. Women voted for Clinton by a 17-point margin over Trump in 2016 (56% to 39%). An April poll by Virginia Commonwealth University has Biden ahead of Trump among women voters, 57% to 36%.

Women are also becoming more engaged in the political process, according to research conducted by the Barbara Lee Family Foundation. Trump was “certainly a factor” in motivating some women to get involved in 2016 and after the president’s election, “but there really has been a big momentum surge since the (2017) Women’s March that we don’t truly attribute to any one thing,” says Amanda Hunter, research and communications director for the foundation.

The group’s survey shows that 29% of women have gotten more involved in politics in the last three years, with the numbers higher for millennial females and minority women.

Women don’t vote as a monolithic group, Hunter notes, nor do they vote on so-called women’s issues, such as reproductive rights, sexual harassment prevention and child care.

Notably, the one national survey that has asked voters how they feel about allegations by former Biden staffer Tara Reade that he sexually assaulted her in 1993 finds that women side with Biden on the matter more than men do. The Monmouth University poll found that 39% of men saw Reade’s allegations – which Biden has vehemently denied – as “probably true,” while 35% of women felt that way.

The major concern for women is economic issues, Walsh says. Men, too, are worried about the economy, but they are thinking about the stock market, while women are worried about their own family’s financial security, she says. Health care, too, is a main concern for female voters, Winograd says.

The coronavirus pandemic brings those issues to the forefront, especially since women are on the front lines of the crisis, Walsh says, working as hospital workers and grocery clerks, and teaching their children at home.

“When you think about the coronavirus, women are among the most vulnerable in the population,” Walsh says. “Now, for a lot of women, it’s survival in a very clear way. They’re losing their jobs, they don’t have health care, and they’re worried about their kids.” A personal worry, this fall, that translates into a campaign worry for Trump.

Susan Milligan is senior political writer at U.S. News & World Report. She has covered …

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